IN-PERSON CLASSROOM SEMINARS

• Correlation & regression analysis; real option analysis; the Black-Scholes option pricing model; binomial trees; GARCH Models; the measurement of energy price risk; and how to use correlation and regression analysis for maintaining a competitive edge.
• How to minimize price risk through operational design Flexibility; measure forward price volatility and adapt Value-at-Risk concepts (VaR) for the Energy Industry.
• Use actual case studies to examine 1) how Monte Carlo simulation is used to value Demand Response programs; 2) benchmarking techniques used for estimating the incremental cost savings of expanding existing operations; and 3) real-option value of generation assets.

DAY ONE:

The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking in Deregulated Markets (2.0 hours)

Means vs. Standard Deviations

Distribution Shapes

Confidence Intervals

Probability

Simulation

Application: Setting up a Monte Carlo Simulation

Example 1-Confidence Intervals for Calculating Value at Risk - VaR

Example 2-Customer Migration Model Estimating Migration out of Standard Offer Service in a Deregulated Retail Electricity Market

Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge (2.0 hours)

Univariate and Multivariate Analysis

Hypotheses Testing

Testing for Equal Means and Variances

Control Charts

Application: Benchmarking to Industry Standards

Example 1-Comparing O&M Expenditure to that of Peer Facilities

Example 2- Estimating the "Economies of Scale" (marginal cost reduction) Associated with Multiple Unit Generation Facilities

The Energy Forecasting Toolbox (2 hours)

Historical Trend Analysis

Univariate Time Series

Multivariate Time Series

Econometric Models

Bayesian Estimation

End-Use Models

Engineering or Process Models

Optimization

Network Models

Simulation

Game Theory

Scenarios

Surveys

DAY TWO:

Time Series Step-by-Step (2hours)

Time Plots

Adjusting for Stationarity

Logarithmic Transformation

Differencing

Correlation and Partial Correlation Functions

Model Specification and Selection

ARMA Models

Estimated Parameters and Standard Errors

Testing for White Noise

Heteroskedasticity

Autocorrelation

Forecasting Future Values

Additional Seasonality Considerations

Example 1-Statistical Reports that everyone can understand

Introduction to Real Options Analysis (2 hours)

Details of Option Model Implementation

Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models

Application: Real Option Valuation

Example of Valuing The Option of Real-Time Forward Load Reduction

Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices

Measuring Forward Volatility

Adapting Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Energy Industry

Application: Optimal Hedging using Statistical Triggers

Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility

Example 1- Valuing Combustion Turbines using Real Options

Example 2- Valuing Gas Storage using Real Options

Kenneth Skinner, Ph. D. -- Vice President Integral Analytics Inc.
Dr. Skinner is a Vice President for Integral Analytics Inc. (IA), an energy conservation focused analytical planning software and consulting firm. IA is fully owned by Willdan, an industry-leading energy solutions provider and sustainability consultant. Dr. Skinner supports core energy risk management and sustainability services including electric grid optimization, integrated resource planning, design and implementation of integrated demand side projects and distributed energy resources. He is part of a team specializing in energy engineering, renewable generation, electric vehicle fleets and infrastructure, program management, microgrids, financing, data analysis, software development, and other fields. Dr. Skinner has over 20 years of energy industry experience developing energy conservation and commodity supply strategies involving portfolio risk management, hedging strategies, and least-cost supply opportunities. Having worked as an energy consultant, Dr. Skinner has significant experience in economic analysis and modeling of distributed energy projects, forward energy prices, financial derivatives, and valuation of energy assets using econometric analysis, statistical methods, optimization principles, real option valuation techniques. Dr. Skinner is widely published having served as the technology columnist for Wiley Natural Gas and Electricity Journal. He is a noted speaker on energy related topics for organizations such as AESP, IAEE, ACEEE, PLMA, IEPEC, INFORMS, Infocast, EUCI, SNL Energy and PGS Energy Training.

This seminar will be held at the hotel listed below or can be conducted on-site at your facilities. The seminar will start promptly at 8:00 AM and will finish at 4:00 PM on the first day. On the second day, the seminar will resume at 8:00 AM and will finish at 12:00 PM. The program includes continental breakfast, lunch, and coffee/cookie breaks. Attendees also receive a professionally produced seminar manual that can serve as a valuable office reference. Dress is casual for all seminars

COVID 19 Information: Please click here for the PGS Covid-19 policy. You can confirm each hotel's specific COVID 19 policy using the link(s) provided below.

The price for this comprehensive two-day seminar is $1,595 (USD).

Payment is due prior to the start of the seminar by Visa, Master Card, American Express, or corporate check. Seminar fees will be charged to your credit card at the time of registration unless other arrangements have been made. Please make checks payable to "PGS Energy Training" 26 Teal Lane • Hilton Head Island, SC 29926. Cancellations will result in a credit that is good for 2 years which can be transferred to a colleague. Substitutions may be made at any time. For more information on PGS policies regarding administrative matters and complaint resolution, please contact our offices at (843) 212-4038.

This live group seminar is eligible for 12.0 CPE credits. Be aware that state boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. As of January 1, 2002, sponsored learning activities are measured by program length, with one 50-minute period equal to one CPE credit. One-half CPE credit increments (equal to 25 minutes) are permitted after the first credit has been earned in a given learning activity. You may want to verify that the state board from which your participants will be receiving credit accept one-half credits.