Companies continue to be exposed to significant energy and electricity related price risk, and this risk needs to be properly quantified. Energy and electricity companies worldwide depend on accurate information about the risks and opportunities facing day to day decisions. Statistical analysis is frequently misapplied and many companies find that "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing."
Operational decisions, capital investment, risk management, strategic positioning, litigation, and marketing are some of the many areas that require accurate information and analysis founded on sound statistical principles. This comprehensive two-day program is designed to provide a solid understanding of key statistical and analytic tools used in the energy and electric power markets. Be armed with the tools and methods needed to properly analyze and measure data to reduce risk and increase earnings for your organization.
This is a hands on seminar you are encouraged but not required to bring a computer.
DAY ONE:
The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking in Deregulated Markets
Means vs. Standard Deviations
Distribution Shapes
Confidence Intervals
Probability
Simulation
Application: Calculating Value at Risk (VaR)
The Linear Method and
The Quadratic Method
Historic Simulation Method
Monte Carlo Method
Application: Hedging Energy Exposure
Understanding the "Greeks"
How and when to Hedge
Delta Hedging
Dynamic Hedging
Gamma Hedging
Application: Component Risk Analysis
Payoff Diagrams
Portfolio VaR Diagram
CAPM, RAROC and the Sharp Ratio
Calculating Load Following Supply Risk
Layered Hedging using Statistical Triggers
Application: Calculating VaR Using Three different Methods
Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge
Univariate and Multivariate Analysis
Hypotheses Testing
Testing for Equal Means and Variances
Control Charts
Case Study: Benchmarking to Industry Standards- GTS Steel vs. KCPL
DAY TWO:
The Energy Forecasting Toolbox
Historical Trend Analysis
Univariate Time Series
Multivariate Time Series
Econometric Models
Bayesian Estimation
End-Use Models
Engineering or Process Models
Optimization
Network Models
Simulation
Game Theory
Scenarios
Surveys
Exercise: Statistical Reports that everyone can understand
Exercise: Building Regressions and Forecasting
Exercise: Using Forecasts in Monte Carlo Simulation
Introduction to Real Options Analysis
Details of Option Model Implementation
Real Options and Net Present Value (NPV) Analysis
Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices
Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models
Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion
Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility
Application: Real Option Value of Demand Response and the Smart Grid
Application: Valuing Energy Assets using Real Options
This live group seminar is eligible for 11.0 CPE credits. Be aware that state boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. As of January 1, 2002, sponsored learning activities are measured by program length, with one 50-minute period equal to one CPE credit. One-half CPE credit increments (equal to 25 minutes) are permitted after the first credit has been earned in a given learning activity. You may want to verify that the state board from which your participants will be receiving credit accept one-half credits.
Among those who will benefit from this seminar include energy and electric power executives; attorneys; government regulators; traders & trading support staff; marketing, sales, purchasing & risk management personnel; accountants & auditors; plant operators; engineers; and corporate planners. Types of companies that typically attend this program include energy producers and marketers; utilities; banks & financial houses; industrial companies; accounting, consulting & law firms; municipal utilities; government regulators and electric generators.
This fundamental level group live seminar has no prerequisites. No advance preparation is required before the seminar.
PGS seminars are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register for a PGS class today, and join the over 10,000 energy professionals who have already attended one of PGS's proven programs.