Companies continue to be exposed to significant energy and electricity related price risk, and this risk needs to be properly quantified. Energy and electricity companies worldwide depend on accurate information about the risks and opportunities facing day to day decisions. Statistical analysis is frequently misapplied and many companies find that "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing."
Operational decisions, capital investment, risk management, strategic positioning, litigation, and marketing are some of the many areas that require accurate information and analysis founded on sound statistical principles. This comprehensive two-day program is designed to provide a solid understanding of key statistical and analytic tools used in the energy and electric power markets. Be armed with the tools and methods needed to properly analyze and measure data to reduce risk and increase earnings for your organization.
This is a hands on seminar you are encouraged but not required to bring a computer.
DAY ONE:
The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking in Deregulated Markets (2.0 hours)
Means vs. Standard Deviations
Distribution Shapes
Confidence Intervals
Probability
Simulation
Application: Setting up a Monte Carlo Simulation
Example 1-Confidence Intervals for Calculating Value at Risk - VaR
Example 2-Customer Migration Model Estimating Migration out of Standard Offer Service in a Deregulated Retail Electricity Market
Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge (2.0 hours)
Univariate and Multivariate Analysis
Hypotheses Testing
Testing for Equal Means and Variances
Control Charts
Application: Benchmarking to Industry Standards
Example 1-Comparing O&M Expenditure to that of Peer Facilities
Example 2- Estimating the "Economies of Scale" (marginal cost reduction) Associated with Multiple Unit Generation Facilities
The Energy Forecasting Toolbox (2 hours)
Historical Trend Analysis
Univariate Time Series
Multivariate Time Series
Econometric Models
Bayesian Estimation
End-Use Models
Engineering or Process Models
Optimization
Network Models
Simulation
Game Theory
Scenarios
Surveys
DAY TWO:
Time Series Step-by-Step (2hours)
Time Plots
Adjusting for Stationarity
Logarithmic Transformation
Differencing
Correlation and Partial Correlation Functions
Model Specification and Selection
ARMA Models
Estimated Parameters and Standard Errors
Testing for White Noise
Heteroskedasticity
Autocorrelation
Forecasting Future Values
Additional Seasonality Considerations
Example 1-Statistical Reports that everyone can understand
Introduction to Real Options Analysis (2 hours)
Details of Option Model Implementation
Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models
Application: Real Option Valuation
Example of Valuing The Option of Real-Time Forward Load Reduction
Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices
Measuring Forward Volatility
Adapting Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Energy Industry
Application: Optimal Hedging using Statistical Triggers
Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility
Example 1- Valuing Combustion Turbines using Real Options
Example 2- Valuing Gas Storage using Real Options
This live group seminar is eligible for 11.0 CPE credits. Be aware that state boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. As of January 1, 2002, sponsored learning activities are measured by program length, with one 50-minute period equal to one CPE credit. One-half CPE credit increments (equal to 25 minutes) are permitted after the first credit has been earned in a given learning activity. You may want to verify that the state board from which your participants will be receiving credit accept one-half credits.
Among those who will benefit from this seminar include energy and electric power executives; attorneys; government regulators; traders & trading support staff; marketing, sales, purchasing & risk management personnel; accountants & auditors; plant operators; engineers; and corporate planners. Types of companies that typically attend this program include energy producers and marketers; utilities; banks & financial houses; industrial companies; accounting, consulting & law firms; municipal utilities; government regulators and electric generators.
This fundamental level group live seminar has no prerequisites. No advance preparation is required before the seminar.
PGS seminars are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register for a PGS class today, and join the over 10,000 energy professionals who have already attended one of PGS's proven programs.